Pakistan could lose up to $1.8 billion in GDP over the next two years if the government further delays the auction of frequency spectrum, Jazz CEO Aamir Ibrahim has cautioned in a letter to Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.
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Ibrahim, whose company holds about 37% market share, warned that persistent delays in spectrum allocation are already causing network congestion and degraded service quality, threatening the government’s Digital Pakistan vision.
“If the 2025 auction is indefinitely delayed or fails due to a poor policy environment, Pakistan risks GDP losses of $1.8 billion (Rs500 billion). If the delay extends until 2030, the cumulative loss could soar to $4.3 billion (Rs1.2 trillion),” Ibrahim said.
Spectrum Scarcity:
Pakistan’s spectrum allocation stands at only 270MHz, among the lowest in the Asia-Pacific region and less than one-fourth of Japan’s per-user assignment. Despite a 45% surge in mobile data usage and smartphone penetration doubling over the past two years, no additional spectrum has been released since 2021.
Operators, including Jazz, Zong, Telenor, and Ufone, have exhausted technical measures to optimise existing spectrum, but Ibrahim warned congestion will worsen, leaving citizens to suffer poor internet quality.
Policy Delays & PTCL-Telenor Merger:
IT Minister Shaza Fatima Khawaja has attributed the delay in the 5G spectrum auction to ongoing litigation and uncertainty around the PTCL-Telenor merger, which, if approved, will create Pakistan’s largest telecom operator. The 5G Spectrum Auction Advisory Committee, chaired by Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb, is awaiting the Competition Commission of Pakistan’s ruling before proceeding.
Rising Costs, Stalled Action:
Telecom operators have also voiced concern over rising costs, noting spectrum expenses have jumped from 13% of revenues in 2018 to nearly 25% in 2023, largely due to dollar-denominated license fees.
Despite the prime minister’s direction in May 2024 to expedite new spectrum issuance, there has been no progress on policy formulation or the release of an Information Memorandum for the auction.
Call for Urgent Action:
“A predictable, investment-friendly spectrum framework and earliest availability of spectrum will unlock Pakistan’s digital future, boosting GDP, exports, and inclusion,” Ibrahim argued.
The warning comes just days before the finance minister chairs the sixth meeting of the Advisory Committee, where industry leaders are expected to press for clarity. However, operators fear no auction will take place this calendar year, further straining service quality amid surging demand.