Pakistan Solar Sector Exposed to Global Module Hikes, A new wave of price increases is expected in the global solar industry after China announced the withdrawal of value-added tax export rebates on photovoltaic products.
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China’s Ministry of Finance and State Taxation Administration said export rebates on PV modules will end entirely from April 1, 2026, while rebates on battery products will be phased out by 2027.
Industry analysts warn the policy change has added pressure to a strained global supply chain, potentially driving module prices higher due to rising input costs and policy adjustments.
Shanghai Metals Market analysts estimate that profits for a standard 210R photovoltaic module could drop by up to 51 yuan per unit, making price increases for overseas buyers likely.
For Pakistan, heavily reliant on imported PV modules from China, the policy shift could raise local solar project costs just as installations are accelerating amid high electricity tariffs.
Upstream cost pressures are also intensifying, with polysilicon prices rising nearly 10 percent month on month and silver reaching record highs, further inflating module prices globally.
BloombergNEF and other analysts note the scale of China’s move exceeded market expectations, prompting exporters to renegotiate contracts and project module price hikes of up to 9 percent after April.
International buyers are accelerating procurement before the April deadline, after which shipments will no longer benefit from rebate structures, leading to short-term spikes in exports followed by higher prices.
Analysts say Pakistan’s solar sector could face slower adoption if prices remain elevated, though early procurement may help mitigate exposure to the next phase of global solar cost increases.
