The Brazil election is heading to a runoff on October 25 after Senator Flávio Bolsonaro edged President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Sunday’s first round, with neither candidate clearing the 50 percent mark needed to win outright.
With nearly 99 percent of the votes counted, Bolsonaro, a right-wing senator, had around 47 percent of valid votes, or roughly 55.8 million ballots, while Lula, the 80-year-old leftist incumbent, had 44.9 percent, or about 53.2 million, according to an analysis by Al Jazeera. Nearly 159 million Brazilians were eligible to vote on October 4.
Bolsonaro Beats Expectations in the Brazil Election
Pre-vote polls had generally suggested Lula would finish the first round ahead, by roughly two percentage points. Analysts cited by Al Jazeera attribute part of Bolsonaro’s stronger showing to protest votes from supporters whose top priority is defeating Lula. That could cap his growth in the runoff, since some voters who moved to him early may have little room left to shift further.
The right also did well beyond the presidential race. The Liberal Party emerged as the largest force in the Chamber of Deputies, while Michelle Bolsonaro, the former first lady, won a Senate seat in the Federal District and Carlos Bolsonaro won one in Santa Catarina. Whoever wins the presidency will therefore face a legislature in which right-wing parties are strong.
Who Are the Candidates in the Brazil Election
Lula is seeking re-election in his seventh presidential campaign. He has deepened Brazil’s diplomatic ties with China and built his political base on social welfare programmes such as Bolsa Família. Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, is the son of former far-right president Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year sentence for attempting a coup, and he maintains close ties to the Trump administration, according to PBS NewsHour.
Issues Shaping the Brazil Election Runoff
The economy and crime dominate the debate. Lula faces an affordability crisis, while Bolsonaro promises to confront criminal organisations and to secure better trade deals with the Trump administration, particularly on rare minerals. Relations with Washington have become tense: the Trump administration has imposed tariffs, revoked the visa of Brazil’s ambassador and designated major Brazilian gangs as foreign terrorist organisations. Lula opposes those moves, while Bolsonaro supports them.
Lula’s supporters point to his welfare policies and his resistance to US interference. Bolsonaro’s backers cite crime, security and religious freedom, while LGBTQ+ voters have voiced worry about a return to the policies of Jair Bolsonaro’s presidency.
What Happens Next
The runoff takes place three weeks after the first round, on October 25, and the winner will be the candidate who secures more than half of the valid votes. Voting is compulsory for most Brazilian adults, so turnout is typically high and the contest will turn on persuasion at the margins rather than on getting supporters to the polls.
Ten other candidates together won about 5.3 million votes, and where those voters go could prove decisive in a tight runoff. Polls before the vote also showed the head-to-head matchup closely balanced, with one Atlas and Bloomberg survey in September describing it as a statistical tie.
The Brazil election result also fits a wider regional pattern, with Trump-aligned candidates recently winning in Argentina, Colombia, Honduras and Peru. Brazil’s electronic voting system has been used since the 1990s without evidence of significant fraud, and the Superior Electoral Court said the vote went smoothly, with no concrete evidence of foreign interference.
As the Brazil election moves into its final stretch, both campaigns will spend the next three weeks courting undecided voters and the supporters of the first-round also-rans, with the economy, security and Brazil’s place between Washington and Beijing at the heart of the argument.
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Sources: Al Jazeera, PBS NewsHour.
