The PMD winter outlook for October to December points to a warmer-than-usual end to the year, with the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) warning that winter may arrive late and that smog and fog could worsen across the plains, according to its outlook issued on October 1.
What the PMD Winter Outlook Says About Temperature
The PMD expects above-normal mean temperatures over most of the country, with the strongest warming signal in Gilgit-Baltistan and northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, as noted in a report on the outlook. Plains may see warm days stretch on longer than usual, while the delayed arrival of snow at lower elevations could raise the risk of avalanches on steep slopes.
Smog and Fog Risk in the Plains
Rainfall is forecast to be normal to above normal in the northern regions, but near to below normal in central and southern Pakistan. That, the department says, could increase fog and smog in the plains, particularly in cities such as Lahore, Faisalabad, Gujranwala and Multan, where the problem typically peaks in November and December.
Dengue and Other Hazards This Season
Dengue is also expected to stay active through October and November in warm, humid cities before declining by December. Isolated hailstorms and windstorms are possible this month and could affect the Kharif harvest, while farmers in drier southern areas may need to plan for higher irrigation needs early in the Rabi season.
How to Prepare for Smog and Dengue
Health experts generally advise people to cut down on outdoor exercise on heavily polluted days, wear a well-fitted mask when air quality is poor, and keep windows closed during peak smog hours. To guard against dengue, use mosquito repellent and remove standing water around the home. People with asthma or heart conditions should be especially careful and keep their medication handy.
With the PMD winter outlook pointing to a later and smoggier season, it is worth preparing early rather than waiting for the first poor-air days of November.
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