Pakistan inflation eased to 9.61% year-on-year in October 2026, down from 10.26% in September, according to data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Monday. The reading brings the headline rate back into single digits after two months above 10%, but prices still rose 1.1% during October alone, so household budgets remain under heavy pressure.
The slowdown is in the yearly rate, not in prices. Inflation stood at about 6.2% in October 2025, so costs are still rising far faster than a year ago. Average inflation for the first four months of fiscal year 2026-27 (July to October) reached 10.05%, more than double the 4.79% recorded in the same period last year.
Pakistan Inflation in October: Key Numbers
| Indicator | Oct 2025 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| National CPI (year-on-year) | 6.2% | 10.26% | 9.61% |
| Urban (year-on-year) | 6.0% | 10.1% | 9.5% |
| Rural (year-on-year) | 6.6% | 10.5% | 9.8% |
| National CPI (month-on-month) | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.1% |
| Urban (month-on-month) | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.8% |
| Rural (month-on-month) | 2.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% |
Villages felt the sharper monthly jump. Rural prices rose 1.5% in October against 0.8% in cities. Food carries a bigger weight in the rural shopping basket, so a gap like this usually points to more expensive food items.
Forecast vs Actual
The Finance Ministry, in its Monthly Economic Update and Outlook for October, had projected inflation between 9.5% and 10.5%, citing high energy and food prices in line with global trends. The final number landed near the lower end of that range. Brokerages had been more hopeful: Topline Securities expected 9% to 9.5% and Insight Securities estimated 9.3%, so the actual figure came in slightly above market expectations.
Topline has also warned that average inflation for the full fiscal year could exceed 9% if international oil prices stay between $100 and $110 per barrel, up from its earlier forecast of 8.5% to 9%.
How Pakistan Inflation Affects You
- Monthly bills: A 1.1% rise in one month means a family that spent Rs100,000 in September needs about Rs1,100 more in October for the same goods.
- Salaries: Anyone whose yearly raise is below 9.61% is effectively earning less in real terms than a year ago.
- Savings: If a savings account pays less than the inflation rate, the real value of that money is shrinking.
- Fuel and power: Energy remains the biggest risk. The government changed the petrol pricing formula this week, and any oil price spike feeds straight into transport and food costs.
What the Numbers Mean
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) tracks the cost of a fixed basket of goods and services bought by households, from flour and vegetables to rent, electricity and transport. The year-on-year figure compares prices with the same month last year, while the month-on-month figure shows how much prices moved in just the last 30 days. Inflation “easing” means prices are rising more slowly, not that they are falling.
What Happens Next for Pakistan Inflation
The State Bank of Pakistan raised its policy rate to 12% in late October, citing a worse inflation outlook as the Middle East conflict pushed up oil prices. October’s figure will feed into its next monetary policy decision. The main risks ahead are global oil prices, disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, winter gas and electricity costs, and food supply. PBS will publish the November CPI in early December.
For official updates, visit the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) website.
Read More: SBP Raises Policy Rate to 12% as Inflation Risks Mount
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